Many fans and GMs are willing to sacrifice it all for a slim chance to be an NBA Finals team. But the reality is, unless you are willing to spend will over $10 million in luxury tax dollars, it is not going to happen under this CBA. And there is a good chance it won’t happen under the next CBA either.
Even if your team’s owners are willing to deep into their pockets in an attempt to buy their city a championship, the odds are still against them.
One only has to look at the New York Knicks organization to see how big spending doesn’t guarantee playoffs, let alone championships. Then there is the Mavericks, Cavaliers, and Magic who found out big spending doesn’t necessarily get it done either.
Five NBA teams had payrolls over $80 million this season. One might have noticed, there is just one trophy.
So some teams decimated this year’s roster and forfeited a season or more for the slim chance of landing a couple of premier free agents and a chance to join the elite. One should question if it was worth it.
There is another strategy. One that involves team building, playoff certainty, and big profits for teams outside of the LA and NY metropolitan areas.
And it is a strategy teams like the Toronto Raptors should be pursuing. Not that they should be turning down opportunities to sign a Dwyane Wade or LeBron James. It is just those opportunities are not very likely to happen.
The obvious strategy for teams like the Raptors is to avoid the mega-stars of the league and build a team around the many secondary good players available. Sorry, Chris Bosh may not fit this model.
Like the Detroit Pistons eight year playoff run, it is possible to have playoff success without a mega-star. Although, it would take a lot of luck to recreate six seasons in the Conference Finals. At the end of the season, just being in the playoffs is what generates fan support and dollars for an NBA team.
There are two heavily reported trade possibilities that would enable the Raptors to keep their young base of players and make additions that should put them back into next season’s playoff picture.
Sign and trade Bosh for Lee.
With Chris Bosh holding his cards close to his vest and nearly everyone expecting that New York is an acceptable destination, the “sure thing” for Bryan Colangelo to do is pull the sign & trade for the Knicks’ free agent, David Lee.
David Lee fits with the Toronto Raptors and in some ways better than Bosh.
Where Bosh is close to 6′ 11″ and Lee is closer to 6′ 9″, both are considered soft defenders. For the same money, everyone should want Bosh on their team. But it will not be for the same money. Bosh will sign a max six-year deal starting at $16.5 million, the most David Lee could sign for starts at $13.5 million. That’s at least a $25 million difference.
Bosh’s early career defensive stat advantage of 1.4 blocks per game has dropped off as knee issues have somewhat limited his mobility. Where Lee’s size has limited him to a half a block per game, that stat has actually improved since he was drafted and Lee makes up for it with a full steal per game compared to Bosh’s o.6 steals.
Neither player has been at much risk of being considered a defensive stopper.
The Raptors would miss Chris Bosh’s five seasons of +22 points per game. But Lee has developed a nice offensive repertoire of his own and cracked the 20 point per game himself last season. Both players will give you 10+ boards a game.
Where Lee has the advantage over Bosh from a Raptors perspective is in his willingness to share the ball.
One knock on Bosh is his lack of assists and his inability to effectively pass out of double teams. Although there were signs of this improving during last season.
David Lee has no such issues. Lee led all NBA centers with 3.6 assists per game and that was on a team in the bottom third of the league in shooting percentage. Bosh had his typical 2.4 assists.
No one is going to suggest that David Lee is as good as Chris Bosh. But replacing Bosh with Lee should not significantly reduce the Raptors effectiveness at either end of the court.
And this trade could be trigger for bringing Andrea Bargnani’s game to the fore.
Mo Williams for Jose Calderon.
Maybe this is just shuffling the deck chairs on the titanic for the Cavaliers and the Raptors. But both teams need a change at the point guard spot, the salaries are similar, and both players could benefit from a change in scenery.
Mo Williams brings a scorer’s mentality to the point guard spot. A good three-point threat who can and does drop over 20 points on any given night. The type of guard who would mesh well with the Raptors Hedo Turkoglu.
Jose Calderon is the prototypical pass first point guard. A guard who has worked well running the pick and roll and feeding the ball to his team’s All-Star for easy shots. Someone who should be able to step in and make LeBron James life easier from day one and stop the Cavaliers offense from vanishing when James leaves the floor.
This reason this potential deal has got so much play in the media is that it makes sense. A low risk, potentially high reward transaction that should get either team’s GM in any trouble. (Assuming the Cavs have a GM.)
And moving Jose Calderon could be the tonic for resolving the Raptors issues with Hedo Turkoglu.
Why should the Raptors be pursuing these transactions?
For over 40 games last season, the Toronto Raptors were a playoff bound team. After wasting the first 20 games, the team’s new coaches and players finally got their act together and won 25 of the next 40. One could easily hang the Raptors end of season drop off on Chris Bosh’s two injuries and Hedo Turkoglu breaking his face for the second time. See Raptors Wrap-up for a summary of the Toronto Raptors season.
Shredding that roster and starting over is likely to mean missing the playoffs for the next couple of seasons. That is not something the fans or ownership will be very excited to hear.
These two transactions should go a long way towards keeping the bulk of the 2009-10 team together. Minimizing the time it will take to “gel” this fall and keeping the Raptors talent level comparable to last year when the team was winning.
Who knows:
- with a decent draft pick(s);
- a trade for the Raptors two expiring contracts; and,
- picking up a free agent with the MLE.
The 2010-11 Raptors could even be significantly improved.
Brothersteve,
If the Raptors were to make either of the two trades you’ve suggested here … while losing Chris Bosh this summer … then, they will be a Lottery Team again next summer.
The key for the Raptors going forward in a positive way remains trading Andrea Bargnani and Hedo Turkoglu.
No offense, but I can’t begin to tell you how much I hate these deals. These would be deals a desperate GM might do in order to try and save his job, not ones a smart GM would do to try and build a long lasting contender. These deals would be bandaid simply to keep a struggling team above water without giving them the ability to actually learn how to swim (how’s that for a metaphor?).
Simply making the playoffs should not be the goal next year (and I’m not convinced that team would make the playoffs, anyway). If Bosh leaves, they need to rebuild. Period. Not doing so is simply delaying the inevitable. I’ve always felt the teams that are the worst off are not the teams that have the worst records, but the teams that are mired in mediocrity.
A team like Atlanta was always pointed to as a good team that slowly built a contender, but the fact is, they were never a contender. They were simply a team with a bunch of moderately good players whose ceiling was pretty much 53 wins. Joe Johnson is a good player, but you’re not going anywhere with him as your best player.
And I don’t think the Raptors squad you’re talking about is even that good. Even potentially.
This team needs to take a season or two to regroup and get itself someone it can build itself around. The Detroit Pistons example is nice, but they’re definitely an anomaly, not an example of how to build a team.
David Lee is actually not that great. Anyone could put up those numbers on a horrible Knicks team (and I think he will flop next year as well). Also, it is way way way too risky when there is zero room for error. Let’s say we have Lee long term and it doesn’t work, it’s a contract mess. Let’s say they got Bynum instead, sure he might be injured a lot, but we would not be stuck with him until the end of time.
Also, Rafael Araujo could easily drop 20 on a Bargs/Lee front-court.
RA couldn’t drop 20 in college – seriously.
I’m sorry, im going to try to kepp this as professional as possible, but this article is just so stupid. Stats isen’t everything. Bosh is a much better defender than Lee. and even if Bragnani improves his Rebounding and help defence, having Lee and Andrea will not cut it and will be worse than Bosh and Andrea. Please, no more silly articles for the sake of putting them out there.
Bosh didn’t look much better head-to-head in Toronto
You don’t have to agree – but Lee was a far more active defender than Bosh.
Not as skilled, but he hustled. At least when I’ve watched him at the ACC.
Yes to Lee (who could work well with Bargs), no to Mo (lets not do another me first, Mike James–TJ Ford please).
Lee would work well with Bargnani because neither would let defense get in the way of their game?
I like
The only way I take Lee is if NY agrees to also take Hedo and we take back Eddy Curry’s expiring contract.
I wouldn’t dump Hedo for just an expiring deal – too much talent to not get a mid first round pick too.
And he’s too much of a cancer for anyone to take him alone.
Trading Bargnani in a deal for Lee, while re-signing Bosh, makes at least a little bit of sense, from a long term perspective.
Trading Bosh in a deal for Lee, while retaining Bargnani, makes very little sense, from a long term perspective.
The problem with the Raptors of the last 2 seasons has NOT been the play of either Chris Bosh or Jose Calderon but, rather, the increased role of Andrea Bargnani … i.e. a player who does NOT warrant increased PT, based on his lack of quality defense and rebounding at the Center position.
Specifically …
The major problems with the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 Toronto Raptors were rooted in:
i. The increased role of Bargnani
ii. The addition of Hedo Turkoglu [bad signing]
iii. The addition of Jermaine O’Neal [bad signing].
Instead of trading away Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon what the Raptors need to do, at this point, is trade Misters Bargnani and Turkoglu.
Period.
The rest is simply window-dressing … by a carpet-bagging organization.
Question – who has more rebounds as their team’s 2nd best rebounder? (I looked – there are some)
Which teams 2 bigs get more than 17 boards per game? (not that many)
Raptors were not usual in their rebounding big tandem at 17 – that was a good number.
2nd banana rebounders in the NBA are usually in the 4.5 to 7.5 range. There are no 10 & 10 tandems that I could find.
Sure more boards is better – but if Bosh is getting 11, there is not a lot more Bargs can get unless he stops boxing out.
I agree Jose has been getting shafted by negative comments – a lot of teams have to hide their PG. That’s the norm.
Last years defensive problems were straight down the middle. DeRozan, Belinelli, Turkoglu, Wright. And beside PGs who weren’t strong defenders, that was really bad. Weems was better at keeping his man in front of him – but as a virtual rookie, he was letting guys get too many clean looks in an effort to stop penetration.
Bargnani was always being switched out onto guards and wings because he was better at challenging shots and cutting off penetration than our guards and wings – then he gets crapped on for being out of position to defend bigs and collect boards. Maybe Bargs could be switched to a SF, he often plays like one – but I doubt the Raps could find a C who defended Duncan or Gasol better than Bargs did this year. Better coaching is a better solution.
And the Raps are cheap! Those who truly want to contend – Spend!
And spending is the only way Bosh returns – I don’t hold out much hope.