In June, when NBA teams start evaluating draft picks and trying to determine what their team needs are, there is another not so subtle analysis going on. What assets and skills does the team have and what is it missing?
And a large part of that analysis revolves around who will be on the team next season, who is leaving, and who is trade bait?
The Raptors have continuously stressed the importance of their returning young core. Even though at least one piece of that young core is at risk of not being there.
Looking at the roster the Raptors had at the end of last season, one can try to see the future by:
- massaging in the hints that Bryan Colangelo has thrown out;
- looking at the Raptors contract situation; and,
- taking into consideration current events.
The Raptors roster after the summer of 2010 could look like this:
- Chris Bosh, gone to free agency.
- Hedo Turkoglu, traded due to excessive pouting.
- Jose Calderon, the next skilled point traded away.
- Andrea Bargnani, the new main man in Raptorland.
- Reggie Evans, an expiring contract turned into something else.
- Jarrett Jack, the Raptors starting point guard again.
- Marcus Banks, an expiring contract turned into something else.
- Amir Johnson, a free agent the Raptors tried to sign.
- DeMar DeRozan, Sonny Weems back-up.
- Antoine Wright, gone to free agency.
- Rasho Nesterovic, gone to free agency/retired.
- Patrick O’Bryant, just gone, finally.
- Marco Belinelli, still coming off the Raptors bench.
- Sonny Weems, the Raptors starting shooting guard.
- And drafted thirteenth overall by the Toronto Raptors?
That’s a potential ten new faces on the Toronto Raptors at the start of next season.
At this point, it could assumed the returning Raptors may be down to: Bargnani; Jack; DeRozan; Belinelli; and, Weems. Get the “team” hasn’t gelled yet excuses warmed up and ready to go!
If the Raptors end up with just five returning playing, what Bryan Colangelo will be going after through free agency, trades, and the draft will be everything except a shooting guard.
But things are rarely as complicated or as simple as they may seem. The Raptors big decisions will be greatly influenced by what certain players on their own team decide to do come July 1.
Chris Bosh
Most everyone assumes Chris Bosh is gone and it’s probably true. But Bosh is insisting he’ll give the Raptors a shot at resigning him and if Colangelo can pull off a trade that brings a significant player to Toronto, we just might see CB4 back in the t-dot. It’s not impossible.
But the safe assumption is Colangelo assists Bosh with a sign and trade deal that returns a significant player and/or draft picks to Toronto.
Bryan Colangelo is almost frozen in his decision-making until he knows how the Chris Bosh situation will be resolved. Which makes one wonder why this wasn’t resolved at the trade deadline?
Hedo Turkoglu
Turkoglu managed to create a minor tempest with his “I’m unhappy in Toronto rant” and a trade seems like the inevitable outcome. But players have gone on tirades before and managed to patch things up by the time the season started.
And Turkoglu’s 11.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and .74 steals per game don’t look that bad in hindsight. Especially when one factors in Hedo’s bizarre injuries and personal problems during the season.
Turkoglu may be traded to a team that needs his play-making skills for an expiring deal and a pick or another veteran. But it is just as likely he returns to Toronto.
Either way, the Raptors probably are not any worse off.
Jose Calderon
The Spanish point guard started out as a fan favorite but has become the Raptors whipping boy for bad defense. Of course it would be interesting to see how any point guard would have defended last season with the defensively timid DeRozan starting beside them. (Jack struggled as well.)
Calderon is still one of my favorite Raptors. A highly skilled guard with a dead-eye shot and an over-willingness to share the ball. Calderon would make a lot of teams in the NBA better. One only has to imagine him playing with Pau Gasol of the Spanish national team in LA.
But this is one player who has to be on the highly likely to be traded list. It seems Bryan Colangelo likes to rotate point guards into the starting rotation and then out of Toronto.
Expect a typical over-paid NBA veteran with acceptable skills to be coming back in return.
Reggie Evans and Marcus Banks
If the Raptors are to make a significant jump in talent, Bryan Colangelo has to move his two biggest expiring deals for some team’s expensive long-term deal.
Every year in the NBA, there are teams that are looking to dump contracts in order to save future dollars. This is best way for teams willing to pay the luxury tax to improve their roster.
Next year, the NBA will be renegotiating the CBA with the players and if one thing is certain, the salary cap and luxury tax line will be coming down. There will be teams looking to make deals this summer to reduce their long-term financial risks.
What $10 million in expiring contracts can bring back to the Raptors is uncertain. But it is probably as much as what Hedo Turkolgu will fetch and possibly a lot more.
This will be an unusual summer when it comes to what teams value in trade.
Amir Johnson
Colangelo has made no secret of the fact that he wants Amir Johnson back in Toronto next summer. Perhaps the only thing wrong with such an aggressive stance is Toronto may up over-paying for the still uncertain potential of this 23-year-old, 5-year NBA veteran.
Amir ended up last season with 6.2 points, 4.8 boards, and 3.1 fouls in 17.7 minutes. Sometimes looking great, like in the last two games of the season, but frequently looking invisible against bigger skilled defenders.
And at 1.5 rebounds per foul, Johnson was his own worst enemy when it came to staying on the floor.
The odds of Johnson returning to Toronto are high. It is unlikely he will get a better offer anywhere else. Raptors fans will have to hope that the end of the season games were a trend if Johnson is to have the anticipated positive impact next season.
Antoine Wright
The Raptors defensive specialist showed promise in the middle part of the season when the team was playing well. But he also showed his limitations at other times.
The main attractive feature about Wright is that he’ll be cheap to resign. But we should also give him credit for being a reliable reserve who can equally provide spot starts and stints on the third string.
Wright is like the chip you hold in your back pocket in case you need it. Given a choice, the Raptors would be better off signing a Matt Barnes to fill that role.
The 2010 Draft
The Raptors hold the thirteenth pick of the 2010 draft. But if the trade possibilities work out as expected, the Raptors could hold another draft pick anywhere from second on. The possibilities are almost endless at this point.
Picks taken in the middle of the first round or later are not expected to make a significant impact on an NBA team in their first year. A lot of those picks are even suspect as to how long they’ll survive in the league.
But if the Raptors can acquire an early pick, the Raptors rebuilding process could move into full swing with veterans being cleared out to acquire younger players.
And this possibility shouldn’t be discounted. This will be a summer of unusual activity.
Bryan Colangelo is once again standing the edge of determining the Raptors immediate future. And so far it seems that he has let one player hold him hostage in the process.
If Bosh stays, reloading the team with veteran talent to take a run at going deep into the playoffs seems the obvious move. Trading Calderon, Evans, and Banks for a solid rotation players. Even trading the Raptors draft pick would be on the table.
But if Bosh goes, everything hinges on what Colangelo gets in return. All ten of the possible moving pieces will come into play and next years Raptors could barely resemble the 2009-10 team when it is all over.
It’s no wonder the Raptors have worked out potential draft picks that are not projected to go until later in the draft or could even be available as free agents after the draft.
At least when one looks at the assets Bryan Colangelo has to work with, the hope is that either:
next year’s Raptors will be significantly improved; or,
the team has acquired players that improve the future outlook.
July seems very far away.
Colangelo has made mistakes last year. Primary one, placing all bets on Bosh, although Bosh had not committed himself to staying with the team. That limited everbody’s scope to short term. Letting Bosh talk about the other players demeaningly; ruining chemistry. As if the whole purpose of the team was to market Bosh only, to polish Bosh’s stats. Colangelo’s scandal in lying about Turkoglu… Turkoglu is told “you’re not playing today, you can rest, you’ll play the next two games;” and while Turk is resting Colangelo announces that Turk has refused to play but went out partying, so he will be punished… Colangelo ruins Turk’s image, throws him to the lions.. He makes use, lamely, of the incident that Turk goes to a cafe 100 yards from his house, in the evening, only because his teammates who were there have asked him to come, and stays there 15-20 minutes, and leaves with Bargnani… Some fan sees Hedo there, makes a fuss about it. Although Colangelo does tell Turk first that it is not a big issue, he turns and makes the surprising announcement. That’s a scandal. Instead, he should have said, Hedo was on rest, and there is nothing wrong with going to a cafe, with his teammates. Colangelo probably chose to serve the part of the fans world that wanted to hate, scapegoat on Hedo… For whatever reasons of their own lile maybe ethnic, political or even racial… Colangelo probably calculated that if enough people boo Hedo he might not be able to endure that and maybe wish to opt out of his contract. You need to accept that that one was quite sneaky and tricky by Colangelo, if all the aforementioned detailes are true. And Turk is openly and publicly declaring their truth, pointing out evidence and witnesses. Colangelo will have a hard time convincing any major player to come to Toronto. What he did to Hedo will be echoed everywhere in the NBA. The NBA environment will understand how they treat players up there in Raptors. Why has anything even remotely close to that not happen to Hedo in all his previous 9 years in three other franchises in NBA? So obviously, it’s the Raptors, not Hedo.
Having said all these, I don’t expect you to write against Colangelo, since I would assume writers like you to be a part of Colangelo’s network or engineering-the-fans campaigns.. Let me tell this also : I have not personally met Hedo in my life. I have watched him in his years in NBA, mostly in Magic. I just don’t like the attitude displayed in TO towards a player. He would be Canadian or German or Turk or Russian, shouldn’t make any difference in the world of international sports. These are some of the most elite athletes of the world, setting examples in their countries, with their presence in NBA. It’s just humanly unacceptable to create so many lies about a newly-wed athlete who in reality is reported as spending virtually all his free time with his wife and one year old daughter. Not smoking, not drinking. Thousands of people have used every degree of foul language and curses while writing about Hedo in forums and elsewhere. All on fabricated false grounds apparently. My personal thinking is, Hedo CAN be useful at the Raptors still if Colangelo apologises in front of the fans, saying there has been a misunderstanding etc. Since it is unlikely to see such correct behavior from Colangelo, I would personally agree with the wish that Hedo has expressed : that he might as well be traded. Hedo did sound extremely motivated however, after this incident on him, and mentally rested too; and as a fan of his basketball style, I believe he might play even at the best of his career this coming year, if utilised in a team that gives him room for his ball handling and facilitating.
My guess is the Raptors will be a perennial sub-playoffs team after now, if they stay on this course. More so if Bosh stays. He is not committed. No way you can build a true team with team chemistry around him. He is selfish, he does not possess leadership qualities. And he shouldn’t be expected to perform as good as last year again for the simple reason that it was his contract year. He obviously is the type that chooses to give his best when it would make sense to do so, in money earning terms.. The Raptors could go after building a team with a different mentality, but I doubt this management would be capable of doing that.
You should have wrote a blog. Well said and I believe that there are a lot of fans who feel the same way.
The disaster during the first 20 games and the last 20 did look a lot like the Raptors trying to boost CB4′s stats at the expense of the team.
I hope though that Bryan only makes a trade if it 100% guarantees Bosh stays, let’s say we acquire someone (and whoever it is will have a big contract) and Bosh leaves, we’re stuck in a contract mess.
That’s assuming that the Raptors wouldn’t want the player they acquired with the big contract. And that would seem to be just a little strange.
Not if the purpose of doing the trade was to keep Bosh, If Bosh leaves, it’s time for a new vision.
It may be time for a “new vision” with or without Bosh – but vision comes from the coaching staff, so ???
Also something I forgot to mention. add this.
16. Iavaroni – fired
17. Bryan Colangelo not given extension (will be evaluated this year)
I got no problem with Colangelo earning his extension this season.
Let’s see what he has got working under duress.
Not sure what Iavaroni actually did?
He had better have been an amazing practice coach or you’re right.
Bryan has done nothing to earn a big extension, I’d like to wait until mid-way through next season to see if he deserves an extension, if they are playing well, then yes, if not, then it’s time to part ways and hire someone else.
If Bosh leaves, I would be in no hurry to extend Bryan either.
As well, maybe Mark Warkentien and Kevin Pritchard will still be available next year as replacements (both are better than Bryan).
As for Iavaroni, I was never excited about that hiring, he was hired to be a defensive coach, but let’s remember that the Phoenix Suns were a horrible defensive team. Also, when he was with Memphis, anyone who gives Casey Jacobsen extended minutes deserves to be questioned.
No there are not a lot of fans that feel the same way because he is garbage.
Who knows what’s going through BC’s mind. How many times has he completely revamped this team? One thing I know is, expect us to be a very active team this offseason. Business as usual, I guess, for the Legomaster.
What about packaging Bargnani and the 13 pick? Get what you can for Hedo. By getting rid of what appears to be Bosh’s reason’s for wanting to leave, can we keep him? Can BC entice one of the big FA to sign in TO?
BC hasn’t done much at the plate lately, last year was a strikeout after fouling off 4 pitches on a full-count.
He’s due for a big hit.