After resolving the Chris Bosh situation, Bryan Colangelo’s off-season work may have just begun.
Leaving aside the numerous trade scenarios that must be under consideration, the Toronto Raptors have five free agents to make decisions about. And only Sonny Weems is under the team’s control.
At the top of this “second” list of priorities appears to be the Raptors athletic big man, Amir Johnson.
Johnson became a favorite of many Raptors followers this season because of his hustle and ability to run the floor. A cast-off from the Detroit Pistons, Joe Dumars finally gave up on the kid after 4 seasons much to the delight of fans at the ACC.
But Amir Johnson’s run in Toronto has hardly been without its ups and downs. Like the team, Johnson was a model of inconsistency and after five seasons in the NBA, shouldn’t Johnson’s obvious potential been realized to a greater extent by now?
This past season Amir Johnson averaged: 6.2 points; 4.8 rebounds; 0.5 steals; 0.8 blocks; and 3.1 fouls in 17.7 minutes. Johnson played in all 82 games and saw reasonably consistent minutes all season for the first time in his NBA career.
But in all honesty, those aren’t even particularly impressive statistics for decent rookie.
And in a contract year, one would have expected this to be the best NBA season of Johnson’s young career. Arguably, this wasn’t the case.
Ignoring the 11 NBA games Johnson played during his first two seasons in which he spent time in the d-league, this season Johnson had more fouls and fewer blocks than he did in Detroit. Plus his free throw shooting plummeted to under 63 percent.
And during those first two NBA seasons, Johnson looked like a better scorer from the field.
But it wasn’t all downhill statistically for Johnson this past season. His rebounding bounced up to 4.8 per game from 3.7 the year before and he shot 62 percent from the field.
Plus Johnson sure is pretty to watch when he runs the floor. Johnson did add something the Raptors haven’t had in recent years. A big man who can play like an athletic wing.
And Johnson’s numbers didn’t move much when the Raptors played the better teams in the league.
Against playoff bound teams, Johnson averaged: 5.9 points,; 4.9 rebounds; and 0.8 blocks.
And only slightly worse against the league’s top eight teams with 5.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 0.6 blocks.
But against the big three in the East, Johnson looked over-matched and it showed in his statistics. In 12 games against Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando, Johnson only managed: 4.4 points; 3.6 boards; and 0.4 blocks.
Johnson played his best against:
- Portland, 2 games at 11.5 points and 7.0 boards;
- New York, 4 games at 11.5 points and 6.5 boards;
- Golden State, 2 games at 11.0 points and 6.0 boards;
- Detroit, 4 games at 10.8 boards and 4.0 boards; and,
- Atlanta, 4 games at 10.2 points and 7.5 boards.
And Johnson played his worst against:
- Utah, 2 games 1.0 points and 3.0 boards;
- Houston, 2 games at 1.5 points and 3.5 boards;
- Sacramento, 2 games at 2.0 points and 1.5 boards;
- Minnesota, 2 games at 2.0 points and 5.5 boards; and,
- Boston, 4 games at 3.0 points and 3.2 boards.
Some might have noticed Johnson’s tendency to disappear at times in games where the other team had effective big men.
With Bosh’s late season injury, Johnson was afforded an opportunity to play more minutes and start four games. And from a scoring perspective he responded.
Over the last six games of the season, Johnson averaged 15.8 points and 5.7 rebounds in 30.7 minutes. The only slight against his late season work were the three games with just two rebounds. But surpassing his career high in scoring twice in the last two games was impressive.
However late season success against teams out of the playoffs is not what a GM should be basing a new contract on.
And there should be little doubt that Amir Johnson was over-paid on his last deal. It was the plus $10 million contract from Joe Dumars that got Amir Johnson shipped out of Detroit for virtually nothing.
It has been suggested by some that Johnson is in line for a new contract for about the mid-level exception. That would look like a mistake.
There have been numerous unproven big men signed to deals like that in the past and far too many of them result in salary cap hardship for the signing team. And there is a good argument that Johnson didn’t produce to the level of the contract that he was on this past season.
Bryan Colangelo has stated that he intends to bring Amir Johnson back to the Raptors for next season. And without much doubt, that would be a popular move with the fans.
But Colangelo can’t afford to make the same mistake Dumars made three seasons ago and overpay for potential that may never be realized.
Here’s hoping the “young gun” returns to Toronto anyway.
To be honest this kid impressed me more than Bosh did this season. He’s easily my favourite Raptor right now. I hope him and Antoine both return. If Amir isn’t a Raptor next season, I’ll be broken-hearted.
A lot of people like Amir. He plays hard. But his skill level and judgement still have a long way to go before he’ll be anything more than an energy guy off the bench.
Personally, I hope the kid figures things out – he is easy to like.
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My only comment is you might try using the more advanced stats in addition to or instead of the simplistic archaic box score stats.
In fact you might want to consider using advanced stats for all your player analysis. After all that is what teams use.
As BC and other GM say, they use their own stats, they don’t rely on the ones available to the public.
I do use some of the advance stats as a guide – but in a team game, they are just a guide.
And Amir’s real stats speak volumes.
Brothersteve, I think Buddhafan was saying that to be kind. The stats that you are using in your analysis of Amir is beyond useless. There are many advanced stats available at your fingertips that would serve your analysis a whole lot better.
For example, looking at rebounding percentages, you will see that Amir is a pretty good offensive rebounder while being only a fairly average defensive rebounder. Another example is his shooting percentages from different ranges – you will notice that he is almost completely useless in the mid-range (although that got better towards the end of the season), but he is fairly efficient interior/post-up game. He converts a great percentage of lob passes, rolls to the baskets.
So, I’m not sure what “volumes” Amir’s “real stats” are speaking to you, but his advanced stats tell me that he can do quite a few things quite well already, so depending on what BCo decides to pay him, you might not be paying for what he “might become” but what he “is now”.
The point was his stats haven’t improved since he started 5 years ago and some have gotten worse.
There will be late lottery picks and later rookies with stats as good as Johnson put up this season.
And all those “advanced” stats were obvious from watching the guy play 40 times in person. There is little reason to look them up unless you can’t get out to the games.
The real stats are points, shooting %ages, rebounds, blocks, steals and other regularly reported stats. Those aren’t real enough for you?
They should have gotten a lot better after 5 NBA seasons. And if they haven’t by now – the risk is they never will. But I’d still give the guy a chance based on his age – just being cautious about the length and amount of his contract. Unlike Dumars.
Those regularly reported stats do nothing to tell you (relative to other comparable players) how effective the guy is. Heck, I’m willing to bet that if Amir Johnson could stay in the game for 35 minutes (i.e., not fouling out) and got that PT, he could surpass 10pts, 10rbs a game, but he doesn’t get that because he doesn’t play 35-40 minutes per game.
In other words, his “real stats” didn’t improve all that much because he didn’t play that many more minutes this year.
In any event, while a full mid-level deal (at 6 years) would definitely be a mistake, we should try to do everything in our power to keep this guy (for hopefully less than the mid-level). Sure he may be replaceable in the draft, but PF/C isn’t the only position of need we have. Beyond Bosh, we only have 5 assets of any value – namely, Bargnani, Weems, Jack, DeRozan, and Johnson. We can’t afford to have one of our few assets walk away for nothing.
If Amir Johnson could keep from getting more than 3 fouls in less than 18 minutes he would be a better player – But he can’t and he doesn’t, therefore to project otherwise is meaningless. Especially after 5 seasons.
That is why his real stats are “his real stats” – they represent what he can do.
If and when he develops some skills between his ears – maybe then we’ll find out if those “advanced” stats hold any meaning what-so-ever. In the meantime, those advanced stats are misleading BS – as they often can be.
Also those advanced stats don’t measure how Johnson completely disappears against physical big men like Perkins or Varejao because his offensive game is from 3 feet in and he doesn’t know what to do against those types of bigger, stronger players.
Johnson is still young, he still has potential, and he might “get it” at anytime, but after 5 seasons it is getting more than a little disappointing.
But he is still worth keeping around as an energetic big man off the bench for a modest (by NBA standards) contract. However if some team offers him the full MLE for 5 years – the Raps should wave good-bye.
Amir Johnson showed definite improvements in his offensive game this season. He upped his true shooting % to .639 and cut his turnover rate. His improved finishing around the rim, coupled with his already impressive offensive rebounding has made him a valuable piece on the offensive end – especially on a rebounding starved team like the Raptors. In fact, certain on/off court, +/- type metrics indicate that he was a significant positive to the team’s offensive performance. When you crash the boards, run the floor and finish efficiently around the rim like Amir, it’s easy to see why this could be the case.
His defense is best served at the PF position when he’s matched up against quicker, smaller big men. Obviously he’s going to get pushed around by behemoths like Perkins. In these situations, you want to try to force Perk (or any other slow footed centre) into a lopsided matchup with the quick and lengthy Bosh.
The fact is, Amir was probably Toronto’s best overall defensive player, and has become very efficient offensively, even for a garbage man. He needs to be played well over 20 minutes. If he fouls out, then so be it. He will still give you better production than Bargnani.
As a young player, his priorities going forward should be to improve his overall strength and develop a respectable 10 – 15 footer. Simply put, Amir is already an effective garbage man, but has considerable upside.