Chris Bosh gets injured and the Toronto Raptors impressive run comes to an end. Chris Bosh returns, possibly too early, and is wildly inconsistent in his play.
“If the Nets game is excluded, Bosh has averaged just 19.4 points on 43.8 percent shooting since his return.”
Source: Bosh’s Stellar Season Stalls
But many in the local media only seem to be to see the Raptors as the post All-Star break team that has yet to find their stride since Bosh was hurt. It seems no one can imagine that the Raptors fortunes will return to their pre-All-Star status once Bosh regains his form.
Giving up on a team in eighth place, three loses ahead of ninth, seems very premature. But maybe it’s never too early to lead the charge jumping off of the bandwagon.
With over five weeks and nine games into his recovery, Bosh should be fully recovered by now.
Just in time too. The Raptors are about to start a week of games that will likely decide their playoff fate.
But surprisingly there has been little focus on just how much Bosh has struggled since his return. Much of the focus has been on the Raptors defense. Some people even grossly exaggerating the Raptors defensive flaws to the point of calling them “the league’s worst defense” Raptors Republic
It’s not that the Raptors defense hasn’t been suspect this season. There have holes in the Raptors defensive schemes that teams have driven 105 points per game through. But that doesn’t put the Raptors anywhere near the league’s worst.
The league’s worst team for surrendering points is the Golden State Warriors. GSW gives up 112 points per game and has a solid claim to being the league’s worst defensive team. Backing up GSW’s claim is their opponent’s league leading 48.8 percent shooting.
The Toronto Raptors are fourth in points surrendered at 105 but are twelfth in opponent’s field goal percentage at 46.6.
Another measure the Raptors take a lot of heat for is their inability to defend against the three-point shot.
But Philadelphia claims the worst three-point defense here by permitting 39.8 percent of their opponents three-point shots to drop. Toronto is only fifth worst here with 36.5 percent.
The points per game surrendered measure fails to consider pace. Teams can play good defense and give up points if they are playing at a higher pace. But how effective their defense is will show up in field goal percentage and points differential.
The league’s worst team, the New Jersey Nets have the biggest points differential at -10.3 points per game. The Toronto Raptors are thirteenth at -1.89 and before Bosh was hurt, the Raptors points differential was zero.
A reasoned measure of the Raptors defense would consider them to be in the bottom half of the NBA defensively. A twelfth or thirteenth worst defensive ranking may be in order.
But calling the Raptors the league’s worst defensive club is grossly unfair.
Since the start of the season, almost everyone recognized the Raptors success would come from being a top offense and a middle of the pack defense.
During the middle 32 game stretch of the season when things where going well, the Raptors had that formula down perfectly. It is only a small move on offense and defense for the Raptors to regain that form.
And with four key match-ups coming the next, the time to find that form is now.
Unfortunately, the Raptors are the worst defensive team when pace is factored in (see DRtg at basketball-reference.com)
eFG% is worth looking at (measures the true impact of 3 pointers). And we also have to factor in second chance points (Raptors are 4th worst in offensive rebounds allowed – more lack of D). They are also last in steals.
All adds up to the league’s worst defense.
Thankfully – most of the time – they are efficient at scoring the ball.
Dig deep – but there is no way the Raptors struggle more defensively than GSW, Nets, & T-wolves.
It is misleading to pull one stat out of dozens and then say that defines a team. Especially when one 10 game stretch of the season so skews the teams stats. Raps gave up 116 ppg in games 11-20 when they went 2-8. More than 10 pts above their season average and no other 10 game stretch was even close – even recently.
Raps opponent eFG% is 50.9% good for 9th. Basketball Reference
Raptors claim 72% of defensive boards, 6th worst. But the next 5 spots are within 1%.
GSW at 68.5% is #1.
Based on play, no worse than 10th.
Note: Phoenix is worst at creating opponent turnovers.
How is that misleading? You let the most points scored per 100 possessions. That’s defense – you LET them score more than anyone else.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APBRmetrics
I noted that the Raptors are 9th in eFG% before – but what good does that do you if you let you opponent’s get offensive boards?
No worse then 10th? You named three stats right there that are all worst than 10th. Do they get bonus points for something?
Phoenix is fifth (not 1st as you claim) worst at creating Turnovers. The Raptors are tied for the worst with 3 other teams.
http://bit.ly/9mQrTu
I said steals anyway and they are tied with PHX for last in the league.
The data doesn’t lie. DRtg factors in all these measures – and unfortunately they are last in the league currently. Hopefully they’ll improve goin g into the playoffs.
Simple straight stats are always better than the ones you need a math degree to calculate. There is more BS in NBA related stats than you can shake a stick at – not that they aren’t fun to play with.
AND picking out ONE stat and saying this it how it is – That is as misleading as it gets!
There is more to being best or worst than stats –
And you have only got 1 stat (overly complicated) to back your argument and no one rates a teams defense based on steals – why not look at blocks instead.
All the rest of the stats that measure how the Raps defend do not put them anywhere close to being last.
It is highly subjective as to whether they might be 6th or 13th. Not that anyone would be bragging about this.
My point is just how fast the rats have been jumping over-board and searching for any reason to justify their desertion.
Getting trashed by the media (and fans) who are supposedly on the team’s side is more than just a little disconcerting.
Could at least have waited until after the Charlotte game to see if the Bulls have made any kind of a move.
New stat. Utah Jazz scored 87 points by the end of the third quarter tonight. Where does this rank?
DRtg is as simple as it gets. Raptors allow the most pts per possession of any team. Period. Simple.
I have 20 stats to show they are in the bottom quintile. Show me 1/2 dozen on why they are average. Heck, show me 2.
We need to be honest – even if we’re fans.
“By any reasonable measure, the Raptors are 12th or 13th worst. ”
What 11 teams are worse on defense if you believe the Raptors are 12th or 13th ?
Go by field goal percentage or points differential to get the most favorable assessment of the Raptors defense on the season. And that’s simple and unbiased.
Go by eFG% to get an adjusted view = 9th.
If one only looks at post all-star break, Raps are probably only better than Nets, Knicks, T-wolves, and GSW. But that’s not a whole season.