So the Toronto Raptors got off to a slow start and under-performed their talent level. Is anyone who actually follows the team really surprised?
The boys at ESPN and NBA-TV only ever glance in the direction of the far north and actually spending evaluating what the Raptors are up to does not figure to be high on their priority lists.
Probably why it took a 4 game (now 5) winning streak for the Raptors to finally be ranked higher than the awful NY Nicks in ESPN’s power rankings.
After an apparently tough 33 game schedule, the Raptors now stand one game under .500 and in sixth place in the East on the eve of the New Year.
The Raptors opposition to date has been thus.
In 16 wins:
Team Record Percent
Cleveland 26-8 .765
Detroit (3x) 11-20 .355
New Orleans (2x) 14-16 .467
Chicago (2x) 12-17 .414
LA Clippers 13-18 .419
Miami 16-13 .552
Indiana 9-22 .290
Washington 10-20 .333
Minnesota 7-26 .212
Houston 19-13 .594
New Jersey 3-29 .094
Charlotte 12-18 .400
Raptors have beaten teams who were collectively 200-293, with an average 40.5 winning percentage.
In 17 losses:
Team Record Percent
Memphis 15-16 .484
Orlando (3x) 23-8 .742
Dallas 22-9 .710
San Antonio 18-11 .621
Phoenix (2x) 21-12 .636
Denver 20-12 .625
Utah 18-13 .581
Miami 16-13 .552
Charlotte 12-18 .400
Boston 23-8 .742
Washington 10-20 .333
Atlanta (2x) 21-10 .677
Milwaukee 12-18 .400
Raptors have lost to teams who were collectively 319-206 with an average 60.6 winning percentage.
The Raptors have only managed to beat teams that have winning records three times. But they have only lost four times to teams with sub .500 records and those losses were all on the road.
While over 1/3rd of the Raptors games have come against teams with better than .600 records and the Raptors are 1-11 against this group, that is reflective of the number of teams in the NBA currently with better than .600 records (10 of 30 teams).
But the Raptors did have a brutally tough start to the season until the last five games of 2009 were against teams with under .500 records. As of now, the Raptors have faced clubs with an average winning percentage of just 51%.
So the argument could be made that the Raptors club fans have seen over the first 33 games is the Raptors club they will see over the balance of the season. A team hovering around .500 and sliding into one the 5-8 playoff spots in a weak bottom tier of Eastern clubs.
Of course the other argument is that the Raptors are 9-4 over their past 13 games. Plus a team with 9 new faces and a revamped coaching staff has taken some time to get to know one another. So the Raptors should be better in 2010.
And the Raptors have 22 games remaining against the bottom 10 teams in the East and 9 games against the non-playoff teams in the West. These are games the Raptors should win at a very high percentage.
The Raptors only have to do as well in 2010 as they did in 2009 to achieve the conservative estimate of a 40-44 win season.
Expect more in a very happy Raptors New Year!
