Following the latest embarrassment in Minnesota, the Raptors ended the preseason with just two wins and six loses. Worse, Hedo Turkoglu left the game early after tweaking an ankle and the Raptors’ abysmal three-point shooting continued.
After an exciting off-season of change brought in nine new players, many Raptors’ fans are now beginning to fear the worst.
Some current quotes:
“Expect 2 and 8 out of the gate”
“… this team will start the year 2-10″
Even, “Raptors will miss the playoffs”
Some comments from fans:
“the team has no chemistry”
“Bosh and Bargnani can’t work together”
“Raptors, I can only see 3 wins in the first 33 games”
“If the **** hits the fan, 10-35″
And what has brought about these fears?
- For a start, this team was expected to score easily and often but has averaged only 95 points per game and shot only 24 percent from three.
- Jay Triano has preached defense since the start of training camp but the team is giving up six more points per game than it scores.
- Jose Calderon started preseason in the worst physical condition of his NBA career. He actually looked ill at the first game in London.
- Chris Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu couldn’t start the preseason on time because of minor injuries and fatigue? In their first games back they didn’t play well.
- Jay Triano has been featuring the duo point guard line-up of Calderon and Jack throughout the preseason with very limited chemistry shown between the two guards.
- Antoine Wright, the defensive specialist from Dallas, had to have his knee drained after a training camp mishap and missed every preseason game until the last one.
- The early fan favorite, Reggie Evans, sprained his foot and will miss the home opener.
- The supposed depth players that Colangelo added in the off-season are playing worse as the preseason progresses.
- Every player on the team has preseason statistics that are much worse than expected.
- The Raptors keep losing to teams fans expect them to beat during the regular season!
A slow start to the regular season should be easy to explain and easy to accept, except that fans rarely find ways to accept losing streaks.
The Raptors face two of the top teams in the NBA at home to start the season and quickly follow that with a three game, then a four game Western road trip against teams expecting to make the playoffs. Early wins will likely have to come against Memphis on the road, or Detroit and Chicago at home.
Only winning two of these games is a real possibility and does not reflect on the team’s ability as the season progresses. There is no justification for panic over a slow start based on this opening schedule. Winning four or more of the first twelve is cause for genuine optimism.
The chemistry issue is likely to be very real early in the season. When the Division winning 2006 Raptors brought in nine new faces, it took them 20 games to get their act together and started the season with just seven wins and thirteen losses.
The lack of offense during the preseason has been surprising. But not so surprising when the Raptors’ coach, Jay Triano says he hasn’t implemented their core offensive plays yet in preseason. The Raptors have lived on the pick and roll in the past and Triano has held off implementing the team’s best play until the regular season starts.
The shooting concerns will undoubtedly be resolved on their own. Players tend to shoot the percentages they usually shoot over time. The results from a short preseason schedule playing short minutes is not reflective of what should be expected during the regular season.
The effectiveness of the Raptors’ defense has been questionable giving up 46% shooting by their preseason opponents. But like summer league, the intensity of the games has not been high. Line-ups have been based more on talent evaluation and getting certain veterans’ conditioning up to speed. It is very hard to project how the defense will look from watching these games.
Jose Calderon, Hedo Turkoglu, and Chris Bosh have all used the preseason to get their conditioning ready for the regular season. Their much lower than normal personal statistics in the preseason reflect this.
Chris Bosh: 25.2 minutes; 15.5 points; 6.7 rebounds
Jose Calderon: 23.8 minutes; 8.4 points; 3.9 assists
Hedo Turkoglu: 21.3 minutes; 8.3 points; 3.5 rebounds; 3.8 assists
The good news is that based on the last couple of preseason games, it looks like all three players are ready to go for the home opener. Turkoglu’s ankle sprain has been described as mild and he played on it during the second quarter of the last game.
Chemistry is slowly coming together. In the final preseason game, Calderon and Jack were on the floor together twice for extended periods and the team performed well. In that final preseason game both Bosh and Bargnani had three blocks. Give it some time.
Antoine Wright in his first preseason game had a very rough start. But in the fourth quarter he started playing better. He scored all of his points (8), grabbed all of boards (4), and got a block and a steal in the final twelve minutes. It’s still early but Wright isn’t a rookie and should be ready to play.
The Raptors will miss Reggie Evans. But a sprained foot shouldn’t be a long-term injury and the Raptors have the veteran Nesterovic and the athletic Johnson to back up Bosh and Bargnani.
As the preseason has progressed, Johnson, Weems, and Belinelli haven’t performed as well as they did earlier. But these are all very young players with limited actual NBA experience.
As depth players on the team, they are important and hopefully one or more develops into a good rotation player. However, the Raptors’ season is not resting on whether these players can play heavy minutes or not.
And losing in preseason does not reflect on the team’s ability to win games over the regular season. No one is writing off New Orleans because they’ve gone 2-6. No one is giving the Clipper first in the West because they went 6-2. The playoff expectations of Portland, Denver, Houston, San Antonio, Cleveland, Detroit, or Washington haven’t changed because they may only manage four preseason wins.
Not much should be taken from preseason results without a lot of context.
The betting line for the Raptors is 41.5 wins, good for fifth in the East, but tied with Washington and Detroit. The Raptors are expected to win more games than Chicago, Philadelphia, Miami, and Charlotte. Reference: khandor’s sports blog
As as been mentioned before:
Stand back;
Take a deep breath;
Look hard at the talent Bryan Colangelo has put together;
Realize only 9 or 10 players ever get to actually play;
Take into account the Raptors face a very tough first month;
And, enjoy the show this very talented Raptors’ team is going to provide this season.
Brothersteve’s Green & Red Raptor Blog is still predicting the Raptors Will Bounce Back for a 47 win season.
Brothersteve,
As a Raptors fan myself, I would not be able to place a wager against this team winning fewer than 41.5 games this season … but, if given the choice in real life, I would have few [if any] qualms about taking action against a line of 47 total wins with a reputable wagering establishment.
IMO, this year’s team is likely to prove not as good as the 2006-2007 version AND the remainder of the teams in the Eastern Conference are considerably different [and much stronger across the board] in comparison with that specific season.
Unlike Sam Mitchell, Jay Triano has no pedigree as a former NBA player and, if the Raptors start this season in a way which approximates the 2006-2007 campaign, the current head coach will be fortunate to not have a number of these present players tune out him out completely.
To confuse this year’s situation with the one in 2006-2007 is a mistake, IMO.
Coaching is always a tough one to figure out.
Doc Rivers was an idiot until the big 3 arrived, now he’s a genius.
Mitchell might have been a great coach with the right players – but he really failed them on the Xs and Os.
Jay Triano deserves his shot at this, being a former NBA player as a job requirement would be more than a little short-sighted. Very few players in any sport at any level can coach anybody – the skills are not the same.
I see the team as potentially very good, but the make-over is big on risk as well as return. Still JC, CB4, AB, and Rasho were substantially the core of the team that won 47 and 41 games and Hedo is a huge add – so the probability of being good is high.
Brothersteve,
1. IMO, Doc Rivers was only “an idiot before the Big 3 arrived” in the mind of those who don’t really have a sound understanding of the NBA game in the first place.
2. Do not believe anyone who tries to tell you that Sam Mitchell is a worse X and O coach than Jay Triano.
3. Bosh/#1, Calderon/#8, Bargnani/#5 and Nesterovic/#6 were not substantially “the core” of the 2006-2007 team that won 47 games in a much weaker EC.
The pecking order of that team was:
# Player MPG
1 Bosh, 38.5
2 Parker, 33.4
3 Garbajosa, 28.5
4 Ford, 29.9
5 Bargnani, 25.1
6 Nesterovic, 21.0
7 Peterson, 21.3
8 Calderon, 21.0
9 Graham, 16.7
10 Humphries, 11.2
11 Martin, 7.1
12 Dixon, < 40 GP
Raptors Roster 2006-2007
4. Turkoglu … although a competent SF, over the course of his NBA career … simply does NOT qualify as a “huge” add to this year’s team.
Doc’s head was being called for by the Boston media – he was saved by the trades.
I watched Mitchell call time outs to put in plays when it mattered – he had a 100% failure rate (At least it felt like 100%).
Raptors TV had Jay Triano comment on the Raptors past Head coaches. Kevin O’Neal was an Xs & Os guy. Mitchell was a people person.
Current “Core”, by your list, is 3 of 6 from 2006 – that’s a core. And Bosh and Bargs should be better than they were in 2006.
Plus, Calderon proved better than Ford, & Jack proved better than Ford. (a Fourth)
And, Turkoglu (16/5/5) is much better than Garbajosa (8.5/5/2) – 2x production, looks huge to me!
Anthony Parker was a big surprise and played like a veteran from day 1, but was not a big points contributor (12) in big minutes (33). Current players can’t replace his savy, but the points production can be.
Morris Peterson, who was loved by the fans, was never more than a backup – similar players throughout the league. Questionable if he was better than Wright.
One can always take the other side of an issue. In this case, I think I have more facts – doesn’t mean the team will play better than the 2006 group, but they should.
Fear is good. It will be nice to see fans with lowered expectations due to:
Injuries, flu bugs, 9 new players, etc.
The more I look at this team, the more I wonder if we can beat the top Eastern teams.
I dislike the Celtics. I disliked them ever since I saw them beat LA (Bird vs Magic) all those many moons ago, yet I respect the fact that they even came to play to win in the pre-season.
I just don’t think we have that “x-factor” to push us into becoming a team with a winning attitude.
Lower expectations can be good – the team has a very tough first month.
It’s hard to see the Raps beating the top 3 teams in the East yet.
They either need another piece or one of the young guys has to get to near all-star level of play.
Brothersteve,
1. The Boston media calling for Doc’s head back then was just as mis-placed as the Toronto media lauding the perceived “brilliance” of Bryan Colangelo when he first arrived in Toronto.
2. Just because Jay Triano labelled O’Neill as an “X’s & O’s guy” and Mitchell as a “people person” does not equate with:
“Triano is a better X & O coach than Mitchell.”
3. I made a small mistake in the previous pecking order I listed for the 2006-2007 team, which should read as:
# Player MPG
1 Bosh, 38.5
2 Parker, 33.4
3 Garbajosa, 28.5
4 Ford, 29.9
5 Bargnani, 25.1
6 Peterson, 21.3
7 Nesterovic, 21.0 should be 7 not 6
8 Calderon, 21.0
9 Graham, 16.7
10 Humphries, 11.2
11 Martin, 7.1
12 Dixon, < 40 GP
4. If you add together the MPG and the rank order [RO] of Bosh/38.5/1 + Bargnani/21.5/5 + Nesterovic 21.0/7 + Calderon/21.0/8, what you get is:
102.0 [MPG] and 19 [RO].
If then consider that:
i. There are 240 minutes to be played in a regulation NBA game, this means that these 4 Raptors combined to play only 42.5% of the available minutes; and,
ii. Adding up the RO for Player 2, Player 3, Player 4 and Player 6 that season gives you a sum of "15" vs the sum of "19" for Bosh + Bargnani + Nesterovic + Calderon;
it should become clear that those 4 players did NOT actually form "the core" of the 2006-2007 team, according to the facts.
5. Whether Bosh and Bargnani prove to be better this season is irrelevant … since there are plenty of other players in the East who should prove to be better this season for their respective teams, as well.
6. IMO, it's an error in judgment to believe that Turkolgu is going to prove to be a "much better" player than Garbajosa was based solely on his offensive numbers:
Turk
36.5/MPG, 16.8 PPG, 5.3/RPG, 4.9/APG, .413/FG% and .385/3FG%
Garbo
28.5/MPG, 8.5/PPG, 4.9/RPG, 1.9/APG, .420/FG% and .342/3FG%
without considering the negatives he also brings on the defensive side of the equation.
7. Parker's experience and versatility will not be superceded this season by a rookie, like DeRozan, with increased athleticism.
8. At each and every stage of his NBA career Morris Peterson has been a better player than Antoine Wright.
You're correct … it can be fun and insightful to see the different sides of a question/viewpoint.
Of course the media has been proven wrong calling for Doc’s head – they usually are!
And we won’t know if Triano is any better than Mitchell until the season is over – Have to hope he is! But coaches are often fired for the wrong reasons/ without a reason. I didn’t believe Mitchell deserved the rough ride he got from the fans last year. (I just wish he would have let his assist coaches put in the plays)
No worries on the player comparisons – now it all on the “its time to go play and prove it” – They’ll be what they’ll be!
Brothersteve,
I think you’re overlooking how good that 2006-07 team was defensively in comparison to what this year’s Raptors are capable of.
Anthony Parker was excellent defensively that year while Garbajosa was both very good defensively + versatile defensively allowing the Raptors to effectively match up against different styles of offenses.
Plus, that squad didn’t have to deal with all of Bargnani’s defensive flaws for 35 minutes a night which is a major drawback for this year’s Raptors.
That’s the main difference between the two squads and why the 2007 team was superior to this year’s squad.
Hedo and Garbajosa play a similar style – we know Garbajosa played tough, we know Hedo has more skill. Got to hope Hedo can provide some of the defense Garbajosa did – we’ll see real soon if he can.
If we can get anything close to the defensive savy of Parker out of any the Raptors guards – this will be a very good season. Remember we didn’t see much success out of the 2006 Raptors for 20 games.
The Eastern Conference of 2006-2007 did not include teams that looked like the Orlando Magic, Boston Celtics, and Cleveland Cavaliers of this year, nor middle of the pack outfits with the roster strength of the 2009-2010 Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards, Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, Philadelphia 76ers, Charlotte Bobcats, New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks and even the [lowly?] New Jersey Nets … who are far from being labelled as a “Bad” team, by any stretch of the imagination.
IMO, and barring unforeseen injuries, this season is going to be a very competitive situation in the Eastern Conference without a great deal of separation between spots #4-15 in the standings.
Ever year is different!
But somehow it is always the same.
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