Toronto Raptors: DeMar DeRozan, The Next VC?

On June 25, 2009 with the 9^th overall pick, the Toronto Raptors select, DeMar DeRozan.  Let the speculation begin.

Toronto’s much heralded and highly touted 9^th overall draft pick from the 2009 NBA draft has already been described as the next Vincent Lamar Carter by some highly respected draft analysts (NBAdraft.net).  Wow!

DeRozan is unquestionably an amazing athlete who just happens to already have a good mid-range offensive game and decent rebounding numbers, but he has just turned 20 years old and only has 1 year of college ball.

Some more conservative thoughts (Draft Express.com) have suggested DeRozan’s prospects are more likely to be somewhere between Rodney Carney and Josh Howard.

Why not take a look at how some of these “similar” players looked like as they were leaving college and draw some conclusions of our own?

DeMar DeRozan

First up, DeMar DeRozan’s NBA pre-draft camp measurements place him squarely in the middle between the average shooting guard and average small forward coming into the league.  DeMar at 6’ 5.5” high in socks, 6’ 6.5” in shoes and 211 lbs has good size for the wing position, he is just slightly smaller than the average small forward (per Draft Express).

His 6’ 9” wingspan and 8’ 6.5” standing reach while good put DeMar squarely in the middle again between shooting guard and small forward.

DeRozan comes into the league in excellent physical shape, evidenced by a 4.9% body fat.  While his no step vertical was decidedly average at 29”, Demar’s maximum vertical of 38.5” was impressive and confirms DeRozan’s reputation as a leaper!

However, he had a below average 5 in bench press reps and ran slower than average in lane agility and ¾ court sprints.  It isn’t unusual for rookies with only one year of college to underperform the average in these areas at pre-draft camp, but it does show that DeRozan needs to continue to get stronger and faster.

After one season at USC, Demar averaged 13.9 points, shot 52.3%, and collected 5.7 boards, 1.5 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.4 blocks.  More impressively he averaged 19.8 ppg in USC’s 5 post-season games.

Summer league play, for what it’s worth, confirmed his college numbers and improving scoring rate.

Vince Carter

The Vincent Lamar Carter comparisons are in desperate need of some second thoughts.  Carter came into the NBA a superior athlete with 3 seasons of college ball at North Carolina as the 5^th pick of the 1998 draft.

Aside from the fact that Carter was 6’ 5.5” in socks and weighed 208 lbs, Carter had a 36” standing vertical jump and a maximum vertical of 43”.  (Note in 2009, the highest verticals were: no step 34” and max 40”) In his final year of college, Carter shot 59%, averaged 15.6 points, 5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.9 blocks.

Carter was a more finished product than DeRozan coming into the NBA and had more physical tools to work with.  And Carter’s first year numbers in the NBA of 18.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3 apg, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 blocks are at such an elite level that comparing DeRozan to Carter at this stage of his career would clearly unfair and unrealistic.  (But one can hope? Or dream!)

So, moving on:

Rodney Carney

Drafted 16^th in 2006, Rodney Carney at 6’ 4.5’ in socks and 204 lbs had the same max vertical jump as DeRozan and tested out stronger and faster.  But Carney never was a good shooter in college at 43.6% and his final college year’s rebounding and assist averages just don’t measure up to DeRozan’s, even though Carney was a 4 year college player.

When Carney came to the NBA, he was a low percentage shooter good for 6-7 points, 2 boards, and ½ an assist, steal, and block per game and it hasn’t changed over 3 seasons.  Carney was in effect the same player he was in college.  DeRozan’s is clearly the more skilled player and his outlook is certainly much higher than this.

Josh Howard

Josh Howard was the 29^th pick of the 2003 draft and he has certainly developed into a high level NBA player.  When drafted, Howard was 6’ 6.5” in shoes and weighed 204 lbs.  His long arms provided a better wingspan at 7’ 2” and standing reach at 8’ 9.5’.  He had better speed but fewer bench press reps than DeRozan.

Howard was a 2 year college player who showed strong improvement in his second college year.  But his first year’s scoring was 13.9 points at 50%, very similar to DeRozan’s.  The difference is in Howard’s superior rebounding, steals and blocks.  Howard’s second year scoring closely matches DeRozan’s USC playoff average.

In his first season in the NBA, Josh Howard managed 8.6 points on 43% shooting, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1 steal, and 0.8 blocks in 23.7 minutes.  It took Howard 2 NBA seasons to find his range from the 3-point line. These numbers would represent an excellent target for a rookie like DeRozan to aim for in his first NBA season, the steal and block numbers possibly being out of reach.

Author’s Pick:

Andre Iguodala

With the 8^th pick in the 2004 NBA draft, the Raptors should have picked Andre Iguodala!  But they didn’t, and Iguodala fell to 9th.  Maybe the Raptors got it right 5 years later in 2009.

As a rookie Andre Iguodala was strikingly similar to DeRozan.  At 6’ 5.75” in socks and 217 lbs, Iguodala had a wingspan and reach about 2” further but his no step vertical and maximum vertical leap numbers fell in between DeRozan’s.  Not as strong but slightly faster, Iguodala makes for a good comparative.

A 2 year college player, in his first year Iguodala only managed 6.4 points on 38% shooting, but had 4.9 boards, 2 assists, 1.5 steals, and 0.6 blocks.  And like DeRozan started out a very poor 3-point shooter hitting on only 20%.  DeRozan clearly came to college as the much better shooter, but the balance of the stats are comparable.

Iguodala improved on all aspects of his game in his second college year and by his first NBA season finally shot the ball better than 49%.  DeRozan’s game could easily follow a similar path of development, minus the early 2-point shooting woes.

In Iguodala’s first NBA season he shot 49.3%, scored 9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.7 steals, and 0.6 blocks in 33 minutes.  Except for the steals, these represent very attainable targets for DeRozan to shoot for in his rookie season, even without the 30+ minutes a night.

Perhaps it’s just the pain of remembering the Raptor’s 2004 draft pick when selecting Iguodala as the player DeRozan should be expected to develop into.  But there are distinct parallels to Iguodala’s NBA path.

Draft express’ selection of Josh Howard as DeRozan’s best case certainly isn’t without merit.  However, the Rodney Carney worst case scenario would seem to require a complete meltdown on DeRozan’s part.

Maybe the most optimistic projections for DeMar DeRozan are achieved and Raptor fans get to enjoy His Airness 2.0, but the more realistic scenario seems to be that of a Josh Howard or Andre Iguodala type outcome.  And that’s nothing to be concerned about!

Looking for a stat line of 9 points, 5 boards, 3 assists, 1 steal and 0.5 block as a sign of high achievement for a rookie is optimistic enough!

But what are the fans thoughts?